fieldwork in nigeria (west africa)

randomized experiment associated to the april 2007 elections

 

 

 

this happened...

 

This election is a do or die affair.

Feb. 10th 2007, President Obasanjo

 

Elections could further destabilise the violent, oil-rich Delta region.

Mar. 15th , 2007, The Economist, headline

 

Election breeds fear in Nigeria's Muslim north.

Apr. 12th , 2007, The Financial Times, headline

 

After rigged and violent local polls, the opposition threatens a boycott of the presidential race.

Apr. 18th , 2007, The Economist, headline

 

Violence and fraud tarnish Nigerian elections.

Apr. 22nd , 2007, The Financial Times, headline

 

Rigging, violence and intimidation were so pervasive and on such naked display that they made a mockery of the electoral process. […] Where voting did take place, many voters stayed away from the polls. They were frightened off by a pre-election period that saw more than 100 people killed in election-related clashes. By the time voting ended, the body count had surpassed 300.

May 15th , 2007, Human Rights Watch

 

while we were in the field!

 

We have designed and organized together with local partners a Randomized Experiment on Political Violence during the Elections of April 2007.

This experiment included:

• A Randomized Campaign conducted by a consortium of local NGOs headed by ActionAid International Nigeria in 12 enumeration areas in 6 states of Nigeria;

• Pre and Post-Election Panel Household Surveys, conducted by Afrobarometer's local partner PSI - Practical Sampling International, including 1200 (+300 post-election oversample) interviews in 24 enumeration areas chosen within Afrobarometer's representative sample of 275 EAs (in all 37 states) of Nigeria.

This experiment was aimed at assessing the effects of the campaign, not only in terms of reports/perceptions related with violence, but also in terms of voting behavior (turnout, vote) by the panel of respondents. We also designed a module to characterize the effects of the campaign that worked through social networks.

 

This page is intended to provide an introduction to this project.

 

THE SAMPLE

 

 

Map with the Sampled Areas (places visited in the survey, including treatment) in Nigeria - click for details.

 

 

THE CAMPAIGN BY ACTIONAID INTERNATIONAL NIGERIA

 

• The Campaign was conducted by the following team of local NGOs headed by ActionAid International Nigeria:

  • Human Support Services - LAGOS State

• Centre for Rural Health and Development - OYO State

• Interfaith Mediation Centre/Nehemiah Foundation International - KADUNA State

• YARAC - Youth, Adolescent, Reflection and Action Center - PLATEAU State

• Niger Delta Budget Monitoring Group - RIVERS State

• Environmental and Rural Medication Centre - DELTA State

 

• The Campaign went on from February 13th to February 27th, 2007, and consisted, at each of the 12 treatment locations, of standardized:

  • Distribution of campaign materials: t-shirts, hijabs, caps, stickers, posters & leaflets.

  • Roadshows (including tailored jingles)

  • Popular theatre

  • Town Meetings

 

Left: poster and leaflet; Right: sticker - click for details.

• The jingles and theatre were produced by specialized Abuja company: Red Sapphire Nigeria Ltd

  • The jingles can be found here:

    • English - click here to listen

    • Pidgin - click here to listen

    • Hausa - click here to listen

    • Yoruba  - click here to listen

  • The theatre can be found here:

    • Script - click here

    • The baseline tailored film (parts 1/2 and 2/2):

   

 

• General Documents from ActionAid International Nigeria:

  • Methodology Meeting (16-17 January 2007, Abuja):

    • Report - click here

    • Media Mention from National Newspaper 'Leadership' - click here

    • Some photos:

• Final Report - click here

• Media Review on Political Violence - June 2006 to April 22, 2007 - click here

 

• LAGOS STATE

 

• Implementing NGO: Human Support Services



• Photos from the Campaign

   

The Lagos team posing close to the Roadshow car, distributing materials, popular theatre - Ebute Metta neighborhood in Lagos.

 

The Lagos team in Akwonjo.

 

Quotes:

 

We will not allow those who send their children away from the country and want to use us. We will not vote for such people again. They should use their own children for violence.

Anonymous, ActionAid – Lagos State Campaign Report, May 2007

 

Politics in Nigeria is not a gentleman’s game. The best way to address violence is to go through the grassroots. But as long as there is poverty, there will always be political violence. Your campaign is very good but I am afraid it is like a hungry man who goes to church and yet the pastor says don’t steal and the pastor has no food to offer.

Anonymous, ActionAid – Lagos State Campaign Report, May 2007

 

• Report - click here

 

• Films from the Campaign (Ebute Metta and Akwonjo):

 

 

 

• OYO STATE

 

• Implementing NGO: Centre for Rural Health and Development



• Photos from the Campaign:

The Oyo team campaigning in Ajagba, Oyo Town: popular theatre, town meeting, distributing materials.

 

The Oyo team in Ibadan. 

• Report - click here

 

• Films from the Campaign (Ajagba and Ibadan):

 

 

 

• KADUNA STATE

 

• Implementing NGOs: Interfaith Mediation Centre/Nehemiah Foundation International

  

• Photos from the Campaign:

 

The Kaduna team in Zaria - distribution of materials and town meeting.

 

Quotes:

 

We, in this community, are against violence. [...] If the election is rigged, I do not know what will happen here.

Mallam Dabo Rufai, Zaria ward head, ActionAid – Kaduna State Campaign Report, May 2007

 

• Report - click here

 

• Films from the Campaign:

 

  

• PLATEAU STATE

 

• Implementing NGO: YARAC - Youth, Adolescent, Reflection and Action Center



• Photos from the Campaign:

 

    The Plateau team in Jos including two popular theatres in different days.

The Plateau team in Quan-Pan.

 

Quotes:

 

The thug nature of Kasuwan-nama community [part of North Jos treatment EA] members disturbed the fluid process the campaign anticipated. The most scary part was the sharing of campaign materials which resulted into a rowdy situation until we were forced to exit the scene.

ActionAid – Plateau State Campaign Report, May 2007

 

• Report - click here

• YARAC newsletter - click here 

 

• Films from the Campaign (Jos North and Quan-Pan):

 

 

 

• RIVERS STATE

 

• Implementing NGO: Niger Delta Budget Monitoring Group



• Photos from the Campaign:

 

    The Rivers team in a town meeting and distributing materials in Agama.

 

The Rivers team in Rukpakwolusi.

 

Quotes:

 

The last day of the campaign in Rukpakwolusi witnessed the storming of the community by militants of the Niger Delta People Volunteers Force shooting sporadically into the air in a convoy of vehicles at exact location where the community had gathered to witness the campaign drama. When the militants alighted from their vehicles, some of them recognized the presence of Commonwealth of Niger Delta Youths leadership at the venue and actually did not harass anybody, but requested that campaign materials should be distributed to them. That was complied on the directive of the Rivers State project coordinator.

ActionAid – Rivers State Campaign Report, May 2007

 

• Report - click here

 

• Films from the Campaign (Agama and Rukpakwolusi):

 

 

 

• DELTA STATE

 

• Implementing NGO: Environmental and Rural Medication Centre



• Photos from the Campaign:

 

    The Delta team road-showing in Warri.

 

   

The Delta team in Oko-Anala (including town meeting).

 

Quotes:

 

Any campaign in Warri cannot be carried out without police involvement. As such the Divisional Police Officer was contacted; five police officers were allotted for the campaign at Ogiame Primary School. [...] The campaign went on smoothly.

ActionAid – Delta State Campaign Report, May 2007

 

• Report - click here

 

• Films from the Campaign (Warri and Oko Anala):

 

 

 

• ACKOWLEDGEMENT: We are grateful for the hard work, good-will, and courage of all campaigners involved in this initiative. We would like to convey a special 'thank you' for wonderful cooperation to Ojobo Atukulu, Otive Igbuzor, Olutayo Olujide at ActionAid International Nigeria - Abuja, consultant Austin Emeanua, and to Nwakaudu Chijoke Mark (Lagos), Gbolahan Olubowale (Oyo), Imam Muhammad Nurayn Ashafa, Umar Farouk, Emmanuel Nehemiah (Kaduna), Tor Iorapuu, Henry Mang (Plateau), George-Hill Anthony (Rivers), Monday Itoghor (Delta).

 

THE SURVEYS

 

• Both pre and post-election surveys were conducted by PSI - Practical Sampling International, Afrobarometer's partner in Nigeria.

• The pre-election survey was run as an oversample of the Afrobarometer 2006 Nigerian survey (which had close coordination with the Oxford team), with minor questionnaire adaptation. It reached 1200 respondents (50 in each enumeration area), and went on from January 20th to February 3rd, 2007.

  • Training itinerary - click here

 

Training for the pre-election survey - Oyo

 

 

Surveying in Ibadan and Ajagba, Oyo

• The post-election survey was run independently from Afrobarometer, seeking to find the same respondents that were gathered for the pre-election survey. 1149 of these subjects responded to the post-election survey. A further oversample of 300 new subjects was implemented (25 per location) to address social network-related research (as a control for the campaign in treatment locations, making use of the fact that the campaign targeted panel respondents primarily). The post-election survey was on the field from May 22nd to June 5th, 2007.

  • Training itinerary - click here 

Training of national supervisors and Lagos enumerators, Lagos, for the post-election survey. Extreme right: PSI's managerial team with Pedro: Segun, Gbenga, and Taofeeq.

• We are grateful for the precious contribution of all enumerators and supervisors in these surveys. We want to thank the PSI team for extremely competent work, flexibility, and dynamism. In particular, we want to name Taofeeq Akinremi, Gbenga Adewunmi, Oluwasegun Olaniyan, and Moses Olusola.

 

FINAL NOTES

 

• This research was coordinated by Pedro Vicente and had important contributions from Paul Collier, Marcel Fafchamps, and Michael Bratton (Afrobarometer).

• This research was funded through the CSAE, Department of Economics, University of Oxford. The funder was the DfID - Department for International Development (UK), in the context of the 'Institutions for Pro-Poor Growth RPC'.

 

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